“As we become more polarized, party preference overwhelms other considerations.”. SENATE SEATS. Since 2012, according to Pew Research, 122 of 139 (87.8 per cent) “have been won by candidates who belonged to or were aligned with the party that won that state’s most recent presidential race”. Mitch McConnell is the most unpopular Senator in the country. Republicans have very limited pickup options outside of Alabama, while in a landslide Democrats have many opportunities. Democrats, however, do have more of an upside than Republicans. Polls have grown so one-sided that Republicans fear a Democratic “blue wave” in November with control of the Senate also at stake. In fact, he might not even be a senator. We rely on readers like you to uphold a free press. The existing Open Comments threads will continue to exist for those who do not subscribe to Independent Premium. Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? SENATE 2020 Senate Race Ratings Oct 7, 2020 PDF Document. That being said, there are significant headwinds to any Democrat running in Kansas. “One obvious reason is that straight-ticket voting is on the rise,” he added. It is likely that in 2020 that Republicans will have the advantage in this state. Nevertheless, Jeanne Shaheen looks to be in a very strong position. Please continue to respect all commenters and create constructive debates. Kansas has had a recent history of being unexpectedly good ground for Democrats, in large part due to Sam Brownback’s disastrous governorship. The current 2020 Senate race ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball.Use their map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast. While I would give the advantage to the Democrats here, I’m not comfortable moving this past a tossup. Senate Outlook. The head to head polling shows a very close race. Start your Independent Premium subscription today. For these reasons, Gardener is without a doubt the most vulnerable Senate Republican. Neither of these factors will be helping Jones this time around. In 2014, Independent (and de facto Democrat) Greg Orman gave Senator Pat Roberts a competitive election. See our Privacy Policy and Third Party Partners to learn more about the use of data and your rights. The FiveThirtyEight model, that focuses on state polling and weights them for accuracy, has Biden winning in 86 per cent of the 40,000 simulations. In 2018, Democrats narrowly won the congressional ballot while losing the race for Governor. While it is conceivable that they can gain control of the Senate by picking up the seat in Colorado, all of the tossups, and losing Alabama, it would be a tenuous majority that would make it incredibly difficult to pass legislation. This mechanic has favored Republicans in the past, as Democratic turnout has crashed in every runoff race. In addition, head to head polling has her consistently leading potential opponents. If the current polling proves prophetic, the GOP’s control of the Senate is nearly certain to be lost. “If this holds up,” wrote Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium, “…the consequences could affect as many as five Senate races, six state legislatures and redistricting of over 90 House seats for a decade. A single Senator… say, Manchin or Sinema, would be able to block legislation. 2020 Elections. “That could mean Joe Biden dying before the election. In 2014, Thom Tillis narrowly picked up this seat in 2014 by just 1.5 points. 2020 Senate Ratings (October 1, 2020) 2020 Senate Ratings (September 18, 2020) 2020 Senate Ratings (September 4, 2020) “This suggests the betting markets think there are other factors — outside of polling error and October surprises — which could lead to a Trump win,” Taegan Goddard of Political Wire observes. Trump claims he has 'protective glow' and is 'immune' from Covid. All signs are pointing to a highly competitive race. Verizon Wireless 5G Home Internet, Barrett Is Praised and Pressed on Issues in Final Day of Questioning, What China and Russia Could Reap From Covid-19 Vaccine Diplomacy, The Best and Fastest Chargers for Your iPhone 12 and Other Gadgets, The Stock Market Is Ignoring the Economy. While Kansas is not nearly as Republican as Kentucky, even in 2018 Democrats lost the congressional ballot in the state by 10 points. The Democratic Presidential primaries are heating up, and while candidates have not been shy about putting forward policy, progressives and moderates alike must face the fact that no progress will be made whatsoever if Republicans hold the Senate. His approval rating represents this record- Morning Consult has found he has the 10th highest disapproval rating of any Senator, with a net approval rating of -3. His victory in 2014 was the only statewide Republican win in Colorado since 2004, and since then, Colorado has gotten a lot less friendly to Republicans, giving an over 10-point win to Democrats on both the Congressional ballot and in the Governor’s race. Democrats need +4 for a majority, +3 to control with White House. She has repeatedly won in Maine with convincing margins, even in the Democratic wave during 2008, where despite Obama winning the state by 17 points, Collins won her Senate race by even more- 23 points. You may think that this would be obvious, but the rules are very different in the concurrent special election, in which all candidates will run in an open primary. Peters is definitely favored in this race. Presently, Biden’s favorable/unfavorable number is positive (more favorable) by 6.9 points, according to the averages compiled by RealClearPolitics. Unlike with Alabama, however, there are many signs for Democrats to be optimistic here. D - 12. RATINGS SUMMARY. We then estimated the model’s predictions for the upcoming 2020 election using the most recent quarter’s GDP and current presidential approval rating. It also estimates the polls would have to move in the direction of Mr Trump by an average of 6.0 points in the next three weeks to make the race a toss-up. That's at least twice what the polling models forecast. The current polling average is a 10.6-point advantage in favor of former Vice President Mr Biden and running mate Senator Kamala Harris. Democrats didn’t win a single statewide race in 2018 and will have to hope that increased turnout boosts them further in 2020. Independent Premium Comments can be posted by members of our membership scheme, Independent Premium. This was against Roy Moore- a historically toxic opponent who had been accused of sexually assaulting teenage girls. RCP Senate Ratings, Map. Doug Jones achieved an unlikely victory in this heavily Republican state in 2017. Donald Trump is running out of days to change the current trajectory of the presidential election, after a week where he pulled out of a debate scheduled for 15 October, and when Vice President Mike Pence apparently failed to win over more voters during his turn in the spotlight last week. To the contrary, the fact that McSally lost her previous election for this position is a mark against her. For these reasons, Gardener is without a doubt the most vulnerable Senate Republican. Gary Peters is the only one other Senate Democrat up for election in 2020 from a state that Trump won. Twitter; Facebook; Print; Recent Ratings. What’s becoming increasingly interesting is that the betting models have barely moved the past couple of weeks as the support in polls for President Trump has seemingly collapsed. Most likely outcome: Democratic gain of +3-5 seats. Vladimir Putin's approval rating in Russia 2000-2020 Approval rating for the government of the UK 2019-2020 Most popular U.S. The new European data protection law requires us to inform you of the following before you use our website: We use cookies and other technologies to customize your experience, perform analytics and deliver personalized advertising on our sites, apps and newsletters and across the Internet based on your interests. Our journalists will try to respond by joining the threads when they can to create a true meeting of independent Premium. Senate Outlook. Her approval rating is consistently above 50%, making her one of the most popular Senators in the country. However, she still does well in head to head matchups (though this may be due to the low name recognition of her opponents). Senators by constituent approval rating Q4 2019 By clicking “I agree” below, you consent to the use by us and our third-party partners of cookies and data gathered from your use of our platforms. There are several signs pointing to this being another close race. October 8: Georgia (special) and Kansas move from Likely to Leans Republican; Mississippi from Safe to Likely Republican.Read the Analysis 2020 Presidential and Senate Election Ratings and Analysis The outlook on which party is ahead in the presidential and Senate races, based on combined ratings … New Hampshire has a long history of competitiveness. The president’s average is 42.9 per cent favorable to 54.2 per cent unfavorable (minus -11.3). Republicans have a 53-47 majority. However, things seem to have changed for Collins. Clinton won the state very narrowly in 2016 (along with an equally narrow Democratic Senate pickup), while in 2018 Democrats won big in the congressional ballot even as Republican Governor Chris Sununu won re-election. In 2018, Martha McSally lost her Senate bid by 2.4 points. This will be a very difficult state for Democrats to compete in. She looks well positioned to hold her seat. The public polling shows a close race- with perhaps a small advantage to the Democratic candidates. Are you sure you want to delete this comment? For this reason, there really isn’t a point where winning more seats isn’t useful for the Democrats. While Iowa has traditionally been a competitive state, in 2016 Trump won big. His approval rating represents this record- Morning Consult has found he has the 10th highest disapproval rating of any Senator, with a net approval rating of -3. Why the difference? Are you sure you want to mark this comment as inappropriate? While I’m strongly tempted to move this towards ‘lean Democrat’ I will hold off for now. Discussion thread: http://atlasafterdark.freeforums.net/thread/10584/2020-senate-ratings-2019-mehmentum, The Three Coalitions: Pathways to a Democratic Victory, The Case of Henry Segura: The Next Face of Criminal Justice Reform. Currently, there are 53 Republican Senators, so Democrats would need a net gain of 3 seats to get a tie (which would be broken by the Vice President). « Previous Polls have grown so one-sided that Republicans fear a Democratic ‘blue wave’ in November, with control of the Senate also at stake, Find your bookmarks in your Independent Premium section, under my profile.